Miscellaneous Uses for a Blog

Okay, I’ve been holding my tongue on this topic for a while. With Al Gore and the IPCC being awarded the Nobel Prize last week, and because today is Blog Action Day, I figured that it’s as good a time as any.

The release of the movie An Inconvenient Truth, marked a dramatic boom in public awareness and concern over global climatic change. Every day we are bombarded with announcements of people “going green,” ways to curb your carbon emissions, and dire predictions about the future of the planet. Man-made global warming is now a multi-billion dollar a year “industry.” It’s on the forefront of people’s minds right now, and Blog Action Day is being devoted to the environment as a result.

THE GOOD

It has been some 30 years since the environment has been a real concern among the public. It’s great to see that people are not only taking an active role in cleaning up the environment, but companies getting on board too. The debate has truly reached critical mass here in the US, UK and in some countries that positive change is being made. If there is anything to be said about the new “green movement” is that positive things are happening. We have needed to take action to help the environment for a while, and I’m thrilled to see things happen.

THE BAD

Everything can be blamed on global warming now days. For example, just today a scientist linked global warming to the growth of a mountain. It’s starting to get out of hand for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, the frenzy over man-made global warming has stifled opposing option. Simply questioning the role humanity has had on global temperatures immediately labels someone as ignorant, uncaring of the future, or “paid-off” by big oil. The media (for one reason or another) has chosen to drive home the man-made global warming hypothesis. They have essentially brainwashed the public into thinking that all the evidence points to man-made global warming, and that “all scientists agree” with this conclusion. Scientists opposing man-made global warming have had their funding cut by the government, and some have even received death threats. In the meantime, scientists that report dire predictions of man-made global warming have received millions of dollars in research grants from the government.

The scientific method includes testing a hypothesis and evaluating its results.

1. Define the question
2. Gather information and resources (observe)
3. Form hypothesis
4. Perform experiment and collect data
5. Analyze data
6. Interpret data and draw conclusions that serve as a starting point for new hypothesis
7. Publish results
8. Retest (frequently done by other scientists)

- Source, Wikipedia

Unfortunately, because of the hype, those that attempt to draw conclusions OTHER than the original CO2 hypothesis are thrown out. Number 6 in the scientific method is ignored. How this is good science is beyond me.

THE EARTH IS WARMING

This is a true statement. The earth is indeed warming. Since before the turn of the century, we have been on a warming trend globally. Estimates have ranged from 0.8 C to 1.5 C warmer since the current warming trend started in the late 1800s. While there was a downward trend during the industrialization boom ending on 1975 (which many attribute to increased particulate matter in the air), the general trend has been up.

But, the earth HAS been significantly warmer in the past. In fact, the Vikings had dairy farms in Greenland. Somehow humanity managed to survive.

THE FACTS ABOUT CO2

Carbon Dioxide is the main topic of discussion when it comes to man-made global warming. In the global warming debate, carbon dioxide (CO2) is referred to as a greenhouse gas. A greenhouse gas traps heat on the earth so it does not escape into space, and it also slows warming of the earth during the daylight. Greenhouse gases are vital to life on earth. Without it, the earth would be too warm during daylight, and too cold during the night. While CO2 is a greenhouse gas, it is FAR from being a major one, and even in our industrialized state, humanity accounts for only a small fraction of the total CO2 in the air. Water vapor is by far the primary greenhouse gas on the earth accounting for 95% of the total greenhouse gas. CO2 accounts for 0.054%.

The main link made between the mean temperature of the earth and CO2 levels are a result of a multitude of ice core samples taken from the Antarctic. Scientists have evaluated these samples to evaluate both the temperature and the atmosphere at a given time frame. What they found was a very strong link between the amount of CO2 in the air and the mean temperature. The findings found that higher CO2 levels existed during warm periods on the earth. So there is a definite link between CO2 and global temperature.

Al Gore used this information in his movie, pointing out that when CO2 levels have risen, so have temperatures. While a surface exploration of the data shows an identical pattern between CO2 and temperatures, it’s the timeline of this data that is often ignored. In all the ice core samples, a rise in temperature actually precedes a rise in CO2 by 400-800 years. This would make a rise in temperatures a CAUSE of increase CO2, not an effect. This fact alone makes the primary hypothesis for global warming due to humans null and void.

FEARS

We seem to be bombarded with doom and gloom predictions of global warming. Video of ice crashing into the arctic ocean as the globe warms. There are predictions of the oceans rising 20 feet and putting the biggest cities in the world underwater. Increased ocean temperatures will create super-hurricanes. Weather will get more extreme. Deserts will form in the most fruitful places on earth. The list can go on and on… in essence, humanity hangs in the balance.

Not to go into much detail, much of it is hype. For these examples alone:

• Parts of glaciers are always crashing into the ocean.
• Global predictions for ocean rises are actually in the neighborhood of 20 INCHES.
• One of the foremost hurricane researchers, Dr. William Gray from the University of Colorado points to the multi-decadional thermohaline circulation (THC) for the increase in hurricane activity since 1995.
• The reason we HAVE weather on the planet is to balance cold weather at the poles with warm weather toward the equator. With more greenhouse gases, we would have less of a difference in temperature between these areas. This would result in LESS violent weather.

The hype machine is in full force. The public, like lemmings, continues to follow the gloom and doom “science” being presented by the media. Hey, it makes for good television…

CONCLUSION

No matter where you sit in the man-made global warming debate, I hope you take at least some this information to heart. When all is said and done, cleaning up the environment is a GOOD THING. Yes, money could be better diverted to other problems we face, and ridiculous claims linking global warming and X problem need to stop. Yet, the end result is that people are now caring for an earth that we have been largely ignoring for decades.

As a meteorologist, it’s amazing the amount of questions I’ve got in the last few weeks from friends, colleagues, and others about where I stand on the whole man made global warming debate. The more people ask me, the more I want to do a blog post summarizing many of my thoughts on the debate. I’ve hinted in previous posts about the fact that there has been a gross bastadarization of the facts to the point where people believe the lie. Matthew Ebel and I discussed this effect a few weeks ago as to what he called “The Furry Effect.” While I don’t know where he got the name, the premise is simple: Get enough people to present a lie as the truth, and it BECOMES the truth in the minds of the culture. Man made global warming certainly fits this mold.

I viewed a video today on Google Videos that is probably the most solid assembly of the actual facts about how the manmade global warming theory came to be, how it has become engrained in the minds of the culture, and what the actual facts are. As a result, it’s given me the motivation to actually do this post.

Here are a few of my thoughts on the facts:

1. MYTH: Carbon Dioxide causes global warming. The main driving force in man made global warming is carbon dioxide emissions. One of the main evidence given by those that believe in man made global warming is the correlation between global temperature rises and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (taken from Antarctic ice cores). YES, there is a strong correlation between CO2 and global temperature. The unfortunately, supporters of man made global warming fail to accurately look at the data. In actuality, a rise in temperature actually PRECEDES a rise in carbon dioxide by a few hundred years. As a result, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is an EFFECT of global warming, NOT A CAUSE.
2. MYTH: Climate change would be a catastrophic event that would create more violent storms, create massive droughts, and eventually make earth uninhabitable. The truth of the matter is that climate change is a natural part of the earth and sun’s cycles. It has always been going on, and will continue no matter what we do. The atmosphere has been warmer in the past as it is right now. The Vikings had dairy farms on Greenland! With regards to violent weather, warmer weather globally would result in a smaller global temperature contract, and thus, LESS active weather.
3. MYTH: Every scientist agrees in man made global warming. This statement, which has been coming out more and more in the last several months is what is driving scientists to stand up and say, “Wait a minute… NO!” I believe. Let’s face it… whether man made global warming is true or not, the benefit of curbing pollution into the atmosphere is a GOOD THING. I think the debate has been stifled in large part do to this fact.

Here is probably one of the most well done productions I’ve ever seen that explains the farce of global warming. There is one section that claims the global warming debate is keeping third world countries from developing that I hadn’t thought of before. While I certainly don’t believe it’s as big of a reason for the lack of development in places such as Africa as the video hints at, it’s an interesting aspect to the debate.

Apparently Google has removed the video in the past (likely that Furry Effect living out), so hopefully you will have the opportunity to watch it if or before it gets removed again. Take the time to watch it. It’s over an hour, but VERY good.

How many of you believe that a heat wave in your area is a sign of global warming? Seriously…

I’ve been thinking about this quite a bit today as some news organization and uninformed readers have claimed that the record 12 feet of snow in upstate New York is a result of global warming. Their claim: Global warming = warmer Lake Ontario = record snows.

*bangs head on desk*

The truth of the matter is that Siberia has seen the brunt of the arctic surge the first half of the winter, which allowed the eastern US to be warm. Hence, warm lake. Then when the arctic cold finally comes (along with some lift-enhancing disturbances) you get serious lake-effect snows.

But that’s not the main thought that has crossed my mind today (as much as the global warming claims aggravate me). Unfortunately, it shows how media and political hype over controversial issues twists and distorts the truth. These organizations hype hot-button issues toward their side, presenting them as fact. In the case of global warming, as scientific fact. Then, when average people are presented with any claims to the contrary, those claims are marked as idiotic, uninformed, and externally motivated.

This is true in many of the politically charged issues right now. Global warming for one. The height of the global warming claims come from model simulations of what could happen if we continue doing X and Y. I’m all for cleaning the air, so when it comes to it, it’s a good thing. But none of those models have verified as of yet, and the world can exist with temperatures warmer than they are now. Shoot, the vikings had dairy farms on Greenland!

Another topic, evolution. There is scientific fact to both claims, but anyone opposed to evolution is marked as a religious fanatic not willing to accept “scientific fact”. In fact, it has gone so far as governments pulling funding for research to those that oppose evolution. And those are just two areas. Say nothing about how the media has made Islam and Christianity the sum total of their radical sects, and countless other politically-charged topics.

It all boils down to how easily we accept anything as “fact” the instant we see it. We have lost our critical eye in this information age, and these issues just scrape the surface of how lazy we have gotten. Maybe we simply rely on the media too much to give us a completely researched report. If we can’t even rely on them, how more can we rely on citizen journalists?

I’m just as guilty as many of us in being easily distracted by shiny objects in the hype of news, but we are in for a lot of hurt as a culture if we don’t start to regain that critical eye. Even more, if the media we have come to rely on continues to choose hyping up a story for ratings or politics over accumulating all the facts, yet we like lemmings continue to believe and accept it.

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